There seems to be a tendency, in the way this recession is reported, and in the way some brands are focusing their communications strategies, to describe it as a mighty hammer blow that has prostrated the people of Britain. We are depicted as a cowed and passive people, entirely focused on the bad news around us and responsive only to increasingly hysterical offers and promotions. A kind of marketing ECT. Yet, when you look at what people are looking and asking for as they go about their business online, particularly when you look at what they are asking for on search engines, a more detailed and in many ways, different, picture emerges.
I took data from Google Insights for Search, a goldmine of insights into the collective psyche of the UK online population. According to the Office for National Statistics, 16.46m (65%) UK households have access to the web, an increase of 1.23m on last year. If you also consider that Google has approximately 80% of the search market, and after email, search is the most popular online activity, this gives us a very big base to work from. In fact, we can assume that the hopes, dreams, fears and needs of the UK population, minus the very young, the very old and the socially excluded – are reflected on Google.
So, if we compare search behaviour in the last six months or so, to previous years, three key trends can be identified. Importantly, all three look set to continue for at least the immediate future and in some cases, or not maybe, as we shall later explore, into the medium and longer term:
* Happy daydreaming
* Taking it on the chin
* Doing it for myself
You can click on the links in the text to go to the live data on Google. Open it in a separate window, so you can play with the data as we go along.
Happy Daydreaming
The recession hasn't dented the incurable British trait to fantasise about a richer, more colourful and glamorous life. For example, although the new car market has dropped off a cliff, search demand for both Porsche and Mercedes has remained relatively steady. Now may not be the time to splash out on a new car, but we haven’t lost our love of performance and luxury. The most popular search for Porsche in the last 12 months was for the Porsche Panamera, which costs up to £100,000. Considering that the tens of thousands of searches each month in no way reflect sales figures, our capacity to dream is alive and well.
That these searches for luxury cars aren’t market-driven becomes clearer when you compare searches for Porsche, with searches for ‘new car’ and ‘used car’, which carries a stronger indication of purchasing intent. We can see that they follow a completely different pattern. Whilst the searches for new and used cars more clearly follow a more traditional annual trend, searches for Porsche remain not only steady, but at a much higher proportion of the overall search demand than its volume sales would warrant.
Another manifestation of our desire to daydream can be seen in our desire for all things romantic. If you look at the graph, you can see that this year’s January peak, which took a bit of a battering last year in 2008, is considerably higher than previous years, and started earlier too.
But what is particularly interesting is that in the last few years, searches for extravagant gestures like romantic weekends and getaways were very popular. Of course, a proportion of them would always be just daydreaming, but still, demand was a lot higher than it is now. At the moment, we're searching for cheaper, at-home romance, like films, particularly romantic comedies that will cheer us up while we cuddle up.
What this seems to indicate is that we are determined to keep our relationships in good order, despite the recession, despite everything. Just because the economy has turned to jelly, we haven't forgotten the things that really matter to us. We're just as romantic as we always were, but have simply adjusted how we express it. It will be interesting to see if we maintain this emotional focus as the recession bites deeper, and how indomitable our romantic spirit proves to be.
Taking it in on the chin
The second trend that has emerged in the last six months is another British classic trait - taking it on the chin. People literally aren't letting the recession get them down. Searches for depression and anxiety haven't shown any significant increase, despite a relentless media barrage of bad news. In fact there were fewer searches in the New Year than last year and the year before, so we’ve clearly got other things to think about. We’re a society in survival mode and we seem to be set on getting through this recession with neither whingeing nor self-pity.
People are determined to go about their daily lives, and for a lot of us, that means keeping our jobs. For example, there is less interest at the moment in the minimum wage. When people are grateful to have a job at all, they don't want to rock the boat too much and risk putting their head above the parapet.
We’re showing this same inclination to stay and face the music, in the way that searches for emigration have continued to gently decline over the last few years and there hasn’t been a recent rise in people wanting to leave the country. In fact, searches for emigration at the moment, are considerably lower than this time last year and seem to have already peaked, which didn’t happen in previous years until March or April, so we’re staying put for the indefinite future.
We're showing this same pragmatism, and desire to keep things together, in the fact that searches for wedding and divorce have remained relatively stable over the last few years. We want life to continue as normally as possible, although there has been a slight decline in searches in the last few weeks as we put our grand plans on hold for the time being. But what this data doesn’t show – and the media would often like to portray – is a society in crisis, with families tearing themselves apart over debts and job losses. We are sticking together.
What’s also interesting is that if we look at what people are searching for at the moment around weddings, we can see a clear indication of purchasing intent. People aren’t daydreaming about celebrity weddings, they are actively planning their own and those of their friends and families, buying clothes, going to fairs, getting things sorted out.
Likewise, if we look at what people are searching for on ‘divorce’ at the moment, it’s all very practical, we want advice, we need to understand the law. As there has been no increase in searches for divorce, we’re not seeing any rising searches that indicate a wholesale marriage meltdown. The celebrity divorces of Paul McCartney, Madonna and Hulk Hogan consumed us briefly during 2008 and if there’s another big one in 2009 we’ll probably take an interest, but right now we’re getting down to the court.
Doing it for myself
The third trend is one of self sufficiency and you can see echoes of it in the other two trends. We are taking care of matters ourselves – and we’re sensible enough to ask for help when we need it. For example, its no surprise that there has been a considerable increase in searches for redundancy, beginning last summer. Also as we’d expect, the top searches are for redundancy pay, notice and the law. This has always been the case.
But what is interesting is that people are actively facing up to the reality of their situation. You can see from the top searches in the last 90 days, that we are keen to know our rights, for example, and plan to take an active, rather than passive role in our redundancy.
However, if you look at the fastest rising searches, those which have shown the biggest growth in the last 90 days and therefore in the pre and post Christmas period until now, the top search is ‘redundancy help’. People are directly looking for support in a way they haven’t done in years.
What’s also worth noting is that the other fastest rising search is for BERR, which provides regulatory guidance on employment matters. In other words, are these searches being made not by employees, but employers, looking to trim headcount according to due process?
This trend towards greater self-sufficiency can also be seen in the increase in demand for making thing, such as baking cakes. The trend has continued to rise for several years, but both the Christmas and New Year peaks were higher than ever this year, so there will probably be even more home-made Easter cakes this year than last.
There's a particularly old fashioned satisfaction about baking a cake. It’s not just about saving money, it’s about creativity and self-fulfilment. Does this mean we’re seeing a redefining of domestic values and a return to the days when being able to fend for oneself was not only an essential survival skill but a source of pride and satisfaction?
Yet this desire for improvement doesn’t extend to the wider world. For example, our interest in ethical issues, products and services has waned considerably in the last few months. Searches tailed off considerably in November and show no sign of recovery. This time last year, and in the years before, searches for ethical Valentine and Easter products were on the increase. This year, they are in decline. Our buying criteria have changed.
The same is true for environmental searches, such as global warming or climate change. As you can see from the graph, the novelty of climate change has to some extent worn off. There was no November peak towards the end of 2008 as there was in previous years. Nor was there the sharp rise in the new year, as there was before. Whilst we are keen to take charge of matters at home, we are less interested in issues over which we have little control, happening thousands of miles away, or hundreds of years into the future, than what is happening now, in our workplaces, homes and families.
Yet going back to the ethical issue for a moment, although there was an overall decline in demand, there are some findings that could be indicative of a growing trend. For example, if we look at the top and fastest rising searches in the last year, we can see that Primark’s ethics caused a surge of interest.
This might indicate that consumers are concerned with ethics if it’s on their doorstep – or high street and are becoming uncomfortably aware that cheap goods come at a price. It looks as though this is reflected in the fastest rising searches for Primark in the last 12 months. The Devil Wears Primark tv programme was pulled by Channel 4 in a blaze of publicity. Nonetheless, our bouts of disapproval are short lived. If,we look at the top searches related to Primark over the last year as a whole, we can see that consumers are on a high street shopping mission, not an ethics investigation.
One further observation worth making is that the other fastest growing ‘ethical’ searches in the last year were for superstore, jewellery and fashion. This shows that ethical shopping is now on the high street – or at least, consumers expect it to be. Ethical doesn’t mean vegetarian, dowdy or middle-aged, but can apply to exciting and glamorous products too. Unfortunately for ethical brands, it’s simply a luxury that many of us can do without these days.
Conclusion
So here we are. In the middle of a recession. And what are we doing? The answer is that we’re still falling in love and fantasising about high performance sports cars. We’re no more depressed – or considering divorce - than we were before. Of course we’re concerned, but we’re not helpless victims. We’re more creative and resourceful than ever.
Whilst we expect brands to be honest with us, we don’t want to be constantly told how stressful life is at the moment. Nor do we need to be told how strapped for cash we are. Brands needn’t shout. We’re not deaf. Nor do we want brands to feel sorry for us. We want to be recognised for our courage and rewarded for our commitment. The true British grit is alive and kicking. As marketers, we should celebrate it.